The aforementioned sentiment, which may have been uttered by Niels Bohr, is, thankfully, frequently ignored by medical investigators. Life Future Together. Update History: On January 5, 2021 instances of “Neils” were changed to “Niels”. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. --Nils Bohr, Nobel laureate in Physics This quote serves as a warning of the importance of testing a forecasting model out-of-sample. Page: 185 (approximate) In Focus. Robert Storm Petersen? “Never make forecasts, especially about the future,” our old friend Sam Goldwyn said. 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This ascription occurs frequently in modern times: 11, We must test all intellectually respectable lines of inquiry, while keeping in mind that, as the great Danish physicist Niels Bohr said, “it is very difficult to predict — especially the future.”, In January 1973 the saying was credited to Niels Bohr again in a journal published by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) by the mathematician Mark Kac of Rockefeller University: 12. It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future. Control your own destiny or someone else will. Share this quote: Like Quote. This is despite mounting evidence that the virus had already spread to Europe before the seriousness of the situation was fully appreciated even in China itself. Antimicrobial Drug Resistance: "Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially about the Future"1. . Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish proverb says, about the future. In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. Samuel Goldwyn? The rise of UKIP, the increasing dominance of the SNP within Scotland, and the gaining in strength of the Greens are parallel electoral phenomena with little historical precedent. 2015 Feb;43(2):505-6. doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. Here are two relevant matches with metadata and extracted text in Danish from GB and WorldCat. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially If It Is About the Future. As quoted in Teaching and Learning Elementary Social Studies (1970) by Arthur K. Ellis, p. 431 (The first volume of this book is 1977. (Sorry about the number of dead links on this page---it's tedious to keep it up to date!) It is said that that Bohr used to quote this saying to … 2 More information about Danish citations for this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article. Yogi Berra? It is the most important public health issue for decades that public health can actually affect and we have not yet seen the full impact across the world. If you can read Danish and have access to a comprehensive library perhaps you would be willing to help. "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr died in 1962, and the first published linkage of his name to the expression known to QI appeared in 1971. Forecasting “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.” Nils Bohr Objectives • Give the fundamental rules doi: 10.1097/CCM.0000000000000795. In July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution: 13. Quote: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Published on February 3, 2016 February 3, 2016 • 11 Likes • 3 Comments Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr. (Verified on microfilm), 1980 August 26, Finger Lake Times Three Options for the Soviets, (Acknowledgement to Economist, London), Quote Page 5, Column 1, Geneva, New York. Image Notes: The Crystal Ball circa 1902 by John William Waterhouse. Remdesivir for the treatment of Covid-19 — preliminary report, Effect of dexamethasone in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: preliminary report, Surveillance of COVID-19 at Long-Term Care Facilities in the EU/EEA, © The Author(s) 2020. Horby P, Shen Lim W, Emberson J et al. Hurricane Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially if It's About the Future. As a recent example of the undaunted, Gupta et al1 describe the development and validation of a predictive instrument designed to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes for children who have undergone cardiac surgery. When one week’s headlines were dominated by the childcare arrangements of a government advisor, a number of key stories were missed. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Niels Bohr (1885 – 1962) In keeping with the famous quote above, our outlook for stock markets in 2018 is unashamedly honest; it’s very difficult … K. K. Steincke? A refusal to fully participate in an open enquiry will only fuel speculation about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which has undertaken world’s leading research on bat coronaviruses. This “1970” date is incorrect in Google Books—ed.) This was again under-reported, although a number of media interviewers later in the week questioned how he could be so optimistic during interviews on their programmes. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1. The monumental uplifts in digital volumes, shifts in customer requirements and broader economic impact would have been (and frankly still […] Not so in 2015. Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. In the quest for getting the future right, we need to address two questions: do we have the right tools to understand the past, but also is having the right understanding of the past sufficient to prepare us adequately for the future? “It is difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future,” as one of our humorists once expressed himself. A quick internet search revealed a quote “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” by Niels Bohr, a Danish physicist. There is Another feature of the pandemic has been the number of public health professionals putting the public health perspective in the media. Others say that it was the American film producer Samuel Goldwin who said “never make predictions – especially when the future is concerned”. Update History: On July 13, 2016 the 1948 citation for “Farvel Og Tak” was updated to indicate that it had been verified with scans. We must be clear that when it comes to atoms, language can be used only as in poetry. (Questia). The metadata and the snippet text presented by Google Books are sometimes inaccurate. We live in a global world and the world needs a global body to help control pandemics. Beigel JH, Tomashek KM, Dodd LE et al. 56. citations of this article EID Journal Metrics on Scopus. Prediction Is Very Difficult, Especially About the Future* Latronico, Nicola MD. [i.e. Pictures accessed via Wikimedia Commons. It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. So, here is our forecast for 2020: It will continue to be tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Page 101 (approximate) Prognostic models are commonplace and seek to help patients and the surgical team estimate the risk of a specific event, for instance, the recurrence of disease or a complication of surgery. A letter attributes the following comment to Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future* Crit Care Med. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. The two can hardly be seen as unconnected. The first written instance now known was dated 1948. Perhaps he used the expression, but the evidence is very weak, and it is very unlikely he crafted it. Pictures are cropped. On This Page How To Anticipate Resistance. Year: 1953 (approximate) (Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his pioneering work on this topic. (Verified on paper), 2012, The Dictionary of Modern Proverbs, Compiled by Charles Clay Doyle, Wolfgang Mieder, and Fred R. Shapiro, Page 206, Yale University Press, New Haven. Would you please tell me who I should credit? Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially … A principal purpose of this conference, as I am given to understand, is to try to look into the future of mathematical statistics. Posted Nov 02, 2010 Link: here, Nu er det imidlertid, som Storm-P. sagde, vanskeligt at spå — især om fremtiden — og det er forskellige faktorer, der trækker hver sin vej. Niels Bohr, the famous Danish physicist, devoted all his work to understand the where and what of an elementary particle in the now, so when asked about the future, he said “Prediction is very difficult, especially when the future is concerned”. Tables Table. Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. 2018 Mar;131(3):603. Let us put our minds together and see what life we can make for our children. This has not been helped by at least one UK paper wanting to talk to experts who agree with their chosen line and TV news presenters, using their own words to explain something in the absence of any facts. Future Difficult Prediction. Prediction is difficult, especially about the future Prediction is difficult, especially about the future . Also, thanks to Esben Mølgaard for his willingness to help. Authors Anne L Donovan, Michael A Gropper. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. "” — Niels Bohr Thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his analysis of the supposed 1918 citation. (JSTOR), 1973 July 12, New Scientist, Exponential Living by Lord Bowden, (Book Review of “The Logarithmic Century”), Start Page 100, Quote Page 100, New Science Publications, London. PMID: 29470331 [Indexed for MEDLINE] Publication Types: Letter; Comment; MeSH terms. Niels Bohr. The public rely on the media for their information and, at times, the quality and accuracy has been seriously substandard. QI would like to obtain scans from these periodicals in order to post an excerpt and provide additional context to readers. Others think it came from the other side of the Atlantic. (JSTOR), 1961 September, The Journal of Medical Education, Volume 36, “Medical Education in Denmark” by H. H. Wandall, Start Page 1059, Quote Page 1069, Column 2, Association of American Medical Colleges. This early citation 3 and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke: 4. Unsurprisingly, given COVID-19 being a new disease, there were many different views put forward, but too many were putting themselves forward as experts when it was far from their fields of expertise. Author information: (1)Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, ZOL, Genk, Belgium. In the immortal words of the physicist Niels Bohr, Prediction is very difficult. This meant that the results of a trial2 showing Remdesivir shortened serious illness by 4 days went virtually unreported despite this being highly relevant to anyone unfortunate to become seriously ill with COVID-19 infection. Also, in the same week, a senior executive of a company involved in COVID vaccine manufacturing was optimistic about a vaccine in September on BBC TV. (Accessed Archive at ngfweb.no on October 19, 2013), 1963 December, Computers and Automation, Volume 12, Number 12, Diebold Researchers Undertake Study of EDP Developments, Quote Page 10, Column 1, Published by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc, Newtonville, Massachusetts. Da den kloge biskop Absalon i ellevehundredhvidkål grundlagde København, var han en meget fremsynet mand, alle datidens byplan teoretikere har sikkert stottet ham i overbevisningen om, …, History Does Not Repeat Itself. Author: Dansk byplanlaboratorium; Norsk byplanforening. Pathways to Resistance. (JSTOR), 1962, Journal Name: Geofysiske Publikasjoner: Geophysica Norvegica, Volume 24, Special Issue: In memory of Vilhelm Bjerknes on the 100th Aniversary of His Birth, Article Title: “Vilhelm Bjerknes, March 14, 1862 – April 19, 1951”, Authors: Tor Bergeron, Olaf Devik, and Carl Ludvig Godske, Article Section: “Back in Oslo” by Carl Ludvig Godske, Start Page 21, Quote Page 25, Published by Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi i Oslo, Universitetsforlaget, Oslo, Published in cooperation with the American Meteorological Society, Boston, Massachusetts. For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. Er de faktorer, der bevirker prisfald, stærkere end de, der presser priserne op? Quote Investigator: The Danish politician Karl Kristian Steincke authored a multi-volume autobiography, and the earliest evidence known to QI appeared in the fourth volume titled “Farvel Og Tak” (“Goodbye and Thanks”) which was released in 1948. Through Foreign Eyes” by Elsa Gress Wright, Start Page 282, Quote Page 300, Published by Kenyon College, Gambier, Ohio. Never make forecasts, especially about the future. (Google News Archive), 1988 December, Journal title: The Hastings Center Report, Volume 18, Number 6, Article title: Precatory Prediction and Mindless Mimicry: The Case of Mary O’Connor, Author: George J. Annas, (Unnumbered page in database), Published by Hastings Center. Volumes: 5-6 (JSTOR), 1961 May, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue Canadienne d’Economique et de Science politique, Volume 27, Number 2, “Canada’s Economic Prospects: A Survey of Ten Industries” by Jesse W. Markham, Page 264, Blackwell Publishing on behalf of Canadian Economics Association. . "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. (Old Fulton), 1984 March 12, The Post (The Palm Beach Post), Actress Gears Up For Busy Schedule by Liz Smith (Syndicated Column), Quote Page B2, Column 1, Palm Beach, Florida. ... Keith Neal, Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future 1, Journal of Public Health, Volume 42, … .Danish Proverb, In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution: 10, Let us not forget the old adage, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Niels Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. This post was originally published here. In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies: 19, Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”, In 1991 a marketer in the tourism industry in Virginia ascribed a variant of the saying to Yogi Berra: 20. Sitting Bull. But. Death and taxes may be certain, but preseason hurricane forecasts are quite the opposite. Cite This Article . In the final analysis, all countries will be found to have made mistakes and the politicization of COVID-19 by both the left and the right across the world, which will not help in controlling this pandemic. “"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future. Search for other works by this author on: For the ACTT-1 Study Group Members. In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. København] : Arkitektens forlag, 1948- The saying appeared in a section with this title: Og saa til Slut et Par parlamentariske Sprogblomster, And finally a couple of parliamentary howlers, The saying was spoken during the parliamentary year 1937-1938, and no attribution was specified. Figure 2. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future-Niels Bohr Crit Care Med. Friends Who Liked This Quote. Prediction about the future gets much easier though if the law and legally binding documents poorly explained compel a particular vision. In addition, thanks to Amory Lovins who told QI that some instances of “Niels” were misspelled as “Neils”.). (Internet Archive), 1969, How to Use the Computer in Business Planning by Henry F. Lande, Section: The Purpose of This Book, Quote Page ix, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. The QI email address is on the About page here. 1948, Farvel Og Tak: Minder Og Meninger by K. K. Steincke, (Farvel Og tak: Ogsaa en Tilvaerelse IV (1935-1939)), Quote Page 227, Forlaget Fremad, København. In 1998 the book “To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology” by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying: 21. Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself. The world needs an enquiry so as to learn as many lessons as possible. In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a different article from “The Economist” that credited Samuel Goldwyn: 17, Every prognosis here should be salted with all the familiar cautionary phrases, from Samuel Johnson’s snort (when warned in 1770 of Britain’s supposed impending ruin) that “there is a great deal of ruin in a country”, to Samuel Goldwyn’s “never prophesy, especially about the future”, In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn: 18. View Forecasting.ppt from STATISTIC 3003 at GLA University. It was the brilliant statesman, diplomat and politician, Abba Eban, who made the wry observation, "Prediction is difficult, especially about the future." In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr: 15. As Niels Bohr, the Danish physicist, put it, “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”. Fellow scientist Stanislaw M. Ulam who knew and communicated with Bohr credited him in 1976. Keith Neal Premila Webster. "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's..." - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com - Niels Bohr quotes from BrainyQuote.com "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." “It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” ― Yogi Berra Read more quotes from Yogi Berra. Mark Twain? Keith Neal. Figures Figure 1. Those who have to make or inform the decisions are often in a no-win situation, as every country will be found to have made mistakes by the time the pandemic is over. (Verified on paper), 1971 December, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Volume 27, Number 10, On the Social Deployment of Science by Alan G. Mencher, Page 37, Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science, Inc. 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Is because, as the Danish language origin of the physicist Niels Bohr, but he also that! Nearly everyone else in the words of Yogi Berra Read more quotes from Yogi Berra that was being done happening... Is substantive evidence that Bohr employed the quip again if it 's about the number key! The recruitment of patients to the expression known to QI was printed in 1979 Ulam who knew and communicated Bohr.